Thursday, January 24, 2008

Why Blunt Stepping Down Is National News

Blunt Won't Seek Re-Election, Wants To Spend More Time With Family.
This blog has an interesting take on the Missouri Governor's race.

In MO, the stakes are higher. The state is losing a seat. If Republicans (who have a 21-13 lead in the Senate and a 92-71 lead in the House) can hold the governorship, they can ensure that the eliminated district is Ike Skelton’s (D-Stone Age). By eliminating Skelton’s district, the Republican areas can be used to shore up Sam Graves’ Sixth District, while the Democratic portions of that district can be pushed into the already-Democratic Fifth District. On the Eastern side, Lacy Clay’s heavily black district will need to be pushed out farther due to continued population losses. Republicans could remove the portions of St. Louis City and County that are currently in Russ Carnahan’s district and place them into Clay’s district, transforming Carnahan’s “Lean Dem” district into a “Lean Rep” or pure tossup district. In short, the state’s 5-4 Republican delegation could be transformed into a fairly solid 6-2 Republican delegation, with the Republican seats being in much better shape than they are today.

Some bloggers are projecting the Repubicans will chose JoAnne Emerson or Kenny H. (he has absolutely no name recognition down in SWMO, Tony Messenger seems to be the only one who isn't saying, "Kenny who?, although Banker George certainly knows his name.
The Missouri Political News Service post this blog:Republicans narrowing the field
High ranking sources in Jefferson City are telling us Missouri GOP leaders have been meeting regularly by phone and in person to pick a candidate to replace Governor Blunt in the 08 governor’s race. The list of potential candidates has reportedly been narrowed to two. The remaining candidates are Congressman Kenny Hulshof and Congresswoman Jo Ann Emerson. Leaders see these candidates as the most likely to gather the financial and grassroots support necessary to defeat the Democratic nominee in November.

One reason Emerson’s star is surging is that, on the Democratic side, Robin Carnahan has been calling donors to gauge support for her potential candidacy in a primary against Jay Nixon. Emerson would match Carnahan’s name ID (her late husband Bill Emerson was a legend in MO politics) and equalize the female vote in a critical year for Republicans. Additionally, leaders say they are attracted to the fact that she is a rural Missourian who has done very well in a poor district by appealing to Missourians who might traditionally be safe Democratic votes.

Sources we talk to say the Democrats are sticking with Jay Nixon. Carnahan would be better to stick as Secretary of State and, when Kit Bond comes up in 2010 for re-election, run for his seat. Missouri would then have two democrat senators, Robin and Claire.

1 comment:

Sheila said...

Have you given up on the News-Leader blogs? I wish the rest of y'all would post more often. I don't spout off too much about Missouri politics since I am not too informed. Wow, what an unusual turn of events.