Friday, November 20, 2009

Nodler, Moore Lead In 7th District GOP Primary

Wilson Research Strategies on behalf of the Southwest Missouri Leadership PAC conducted a survey of likely Republican voters in Missouri’s 7th Congressional District.

Key findings:

Billy Long (58% name ID) and Gary Nodler (54% name ID) are the best known congressional candidates. Long, Nodler, and Darrell Moore are each viewed favorably by 27% of primary voters, while Jack Goodman is viewed favorably by 21% of primary voters.

Among decided voters, those who already committed to a candidate, Gary Nodler and Darrell Moore are tied at 26%, with Jack Goodman (22%) and Billy Long (21%) trailing among committed voters.

Among all voters, 40% remain undecided, indicating that the Republican primary is still wide open. Gary Nodler and Darrell Moore are tied at 16% on the primary ballot with Jack Goodman (13%) and Billy Long (12%) trailing by less than the margin of error.

Nodler, Moore, Long and Goodman all have a legitimate chance to emerge from the primary as the Republican nominee should they have the resources and messaging to win undecided voters.


Wilson Research Strategies conducted a research study of likely voters in Missouri’s 7th Congressional District.
WRS selected a random sample of voters from the Missouri voter file using Registration Based Sampling. Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview November 16-17, 2009. The study has a sample size of n=301 likely GOP primary voters. The margin of error is equal to ±5.6% in 95 out of 100 cases. The sample was stratified to represent the district electorate based on race, age, gender, partisan identification, and geographic distribution.

The full poll can be found here.


Anonymous said...

Billy's trying to pass himself off as a populist but he is not.

58% name recognition and only 12% of the vote?

Anonymous said...


Thanks for posting this information. I went to the research firm's website and found information on how the survey was done and additional findings.

I'm not a student of surveys but it really appears that the contest is between Darrel Moore and Gary Nodler.

On page 6 it is stated that 38% of the expected vote is in Greene County. That seems to be overstated. And, if it is, that lowers the numbers for Moore and Long. Only speculation but Nodler and Goodman would both gain.

And, are their any current surveys for Blunt and Carnahan?